Building a Champion

As you'll come to notice, I'm a big fan of the statistic Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  For those of you unfamiliar, it basically creates a measuring curve across the board for players, showing if you replaced this player with a league average guy, how many total wins would you be sacrificing.  For example, last year Albert Pujols is pretty irreplaceable at 7.3 WAR, while Aaron Miles clocked in at 0.  But one of the largest critiques of the Cardinal's lineup during the J-Mo era is that this lineup is extremely top heavy.  Pujols and Holliday are no doubt studs, but there is such an enormous drop off after that which is why the Redbirds seem to struggle to score runs.  But is that really the case?  Using WAR, is the Card's lineup any different in terms of average WAR than others.  For comparison, let's look at some results from the Card's, as well as the Rangers and Giants (both of which went to the World Series last year). 

The Results

Its important to factor in that the Ranger's lineup has the added benefit of the DH, so to compensate, I looked strictly at fielding players with over 50 at bats last year. This should be sufficient since we're looking more at the average WAR and standard deviation of the starting lineups here so minus pitcher's hitting numbers this should be relatively accurate.  Plus, we're looking at averages and deviations here. I'm not looking at pitching , mainly because I think you'd be hard fought to find more than a handful of more respectable rotations compared to a healthy Redbird's starting 5.  

Now, the Rangers seem pretty comparable to the Cards at first glance.  Albert Pujols basically equals Josh Hamilton.  Then, there is a significant drop in terms of talent, name recognition, and age (Vlad).  So, looking at the Rangers, we find an average WAR of .7697 with a standard deviation of 1.807.  The range here tops out with an 8 (Hamilton) and a low of -.6 (Christian Guzman).  

The Giants, however, look a bit different.  There isn't that one guy in this lineup and sets up a different sort of look for building a lineup.  They seem to have taken the young upcomers and wiley veterans with really no player above the game or at their peak.  Here, the defending champions had a mean WAR of .7 even with a standard deviation of 1.705.  The range is similar without that standout, with a max of 6 (Torres) and -.3 (Mark Derosa, yes him).  

Finally, we look at the Cards.  As stated, the Pujols Holliday punch may be one of the best 3-4 in baseball.  Looking at the rest of the lineup though from last year, there are a lot of questions.  The results end up with a mean WAR of .5921 with a standard deviation of 1.798.   Here, the range is the largest of all with a max of 7.3 (Pujols, obvi) and a low of -1.0 (the enigma Joe Mather).  

Brain Trust Analysis

So, there are the numbers from last year's teams.  At first glance, it seems that the general idea that this team falls off too dramatically to produce a champion seems to actually fit.  The Rangers end up with the highest WAR average.  They also have  very comparable standard dev to the Card's, while having only one super WAR producer.  The Giants, also, seem to fit right in the middle where they should be.  They have the second highest average with the lowest standard deviation, fitting the mold they appear to have at first-glance.

Unfortunately, the numbers support the argument.  The Card's have the worst average WAR and an average standard deviation for the team.  Even more disappointing, the Cards have a WAR of 7.3 and 6.9 at the top of the lineup.  For the math challenged, that's not a good thing.  This basically agrees with the hypothesis that the rest of this Cardinal's lineup just isn't respectable enough to be a championship threat.  Out of 17 players, only 7 players had a WAR of over 0.2 ( the last of which is Brendan Ryan btw).  The Card's also have 5 players in the negative, the highest number here.  Looking at the World Series teams last year, it seems that the Card's have to get more respectable players both in the lineup and off the bench in order to really be a threat. 

So how do they do it?  Young production and good drafting is one way.  Buster Posey is a prime example here.  You need that guy who makes a little and produces a lot.  The Cards are looking for a couple.  Freese?  Rasmus?  Jay?  These guys have to prove the Card's drafters right and get this WAR up.  

Add veterans not past their prime.  Vladimir Guerrero.  Pat Burrell.  These guys got it done.  Can Lance Berkman be that guy for the Card's this year?  Is Ryan Theriot fit for a return?  It seems that the Cards have to start drafting better (or keep their guys) and can't settle for the infamous "low hanging fruit".  You've got to pick a winner eventually.  This team currently, in comparison, just doesn't have the respectable depth needed to get it done.  There are a lot of questions here and the Card's could really have more issues this year, or really take a step forward.  J-Mo's performance ranks should be much more visible by the end of this year

A final note. Here are the team payrolls for the three teams: (CBS Sports)

San Francisco Giants: $98.8 million
St. Louis Cardinals: $93.5 million
Texas Rangers:  $55.2 million

All I want to point out here is yes, the Card's aren't first.  But take out the one bad contract on the Giants in Zito at 18.5 million, and the Card's are on top.  I was taking this out simply because Zito is a sunk cost almost, and because the Card's don't have a comparable contract.  The main point being the Rangers here.  If you avoid bad contracts and get lucky in the two categories mentioned (and somehow turn Hamilton's life around), you don't need a payroll over $100 million.  Just wanted to point this out.

Thanks for reading.  Go Cards.