The Utley-less Phils

Chase Utley is no stranger to injuries.  He's battled flair ups his entire career, missing 37 days in 2007 and 49 days last year.  With his knee issues becoming a growing concern due to lack of effectiveness of "non-surgical methods", it is looking more and more likely Utley could miss a large chunk of time. Now, if you remember last year, with Utley out, the Phillies struggled big time and were well out of contention for much of the season (Rollins was also out here as well though).  However, they made a huge resurgence when he returned, proving he is a major key to this lineup.  He makes everyone better.  So, is this Phillies lineup in trouble should he miss 3 months/half the year/all season?

We should all be familiar with patellar tendinitis, it ended up shutting down Big Mac's career.  So, the possible ramifications of major surgery could be huge for the Phils All Star 2nd baseman.  So what does this lineup look like without him?

Polanco (35) and Ibanez (38) are getting up in age and don't provide as much real pop to the lineup.  Ibanez is a streaky hitter and could see some regressing numbers again. Polanco is very solid, but he's a singles man, not the power and average Utley can provide.

Carlos Ruiz batted .302 last year, unreal.  But, as I pointed out yesterday, baseball usually regresses to predictable numbers.  He is a .260 career hitter.  Don't expect that production this year.  The Flyin Hawaiin had a bit of a down year, so he could bounce back slightly, but not anything tremendously different.

So that brings us to the 3 most important players on this offense: Howard, Rollins, and Brown/Francisco.  Howard gives you that pop you need, but his average and strikeouts is questionable.  Plus, how does he handle less protection in the lineup?   He could see more walks, leading to less patience, leading to even more swinging misses?  Rollins has had his own problems with injuries, but is no doubt good when healthy.  He will need to stay healthy, but that has been a recent issue with him as well.  Speaking of injuries, top prospect Dominic Brown should miss opening day due to a bone fracture in his hand.  He needs to be everything they hope he can, and will maybe see some platooning time with Ben Francisco.  Can this platoon really provide the protection for Howard and replace Utley's numbers?  There is a huge question mark there now that Jayson Werth has taken his talents to DC.  

So, here are the projected numbers for this lineup:

Rollins       SS      .260/13/57

Polanco    3B       .291/8/61

Utley        2B       .283/23/88

Howard   1B        .270/38/117

Brown      RF       .278/16/64

Ibanez      LF       .267/18/76

Victorino  CF       .277/14/64

Ruiz          C        .266/8/49

So who pops into that 3rd spot, replacing the second highest average, the second most power, and protection for the clean up spot?  Another thought.  Here are Jayson Werth's line projections: .273/25/94.  Should Utley need major surgery, this lineup which fell short last year is losing a combined projected 48 homers and 182 rbis in Utley and Werth. Ouch.

 Can Dominic Brown really step into that major role and produce immediately?  He isn't a Heyward type player and we've seen the time it takes to progress into roles (Colby Rasmus).  If Utley goes down, this lineup could see Francisco or Ibanez having to move into that 3rd spot and Howard could see major issues there.  Some possible options according to MLB Trade Rumors, would be players like David Eckstein or trade targets like Chone Figgins or Michael Young.  However, with the Lee signing, can the Phils front office really afford to stretch the payroll another 15 million further (if so, God I'm jealous and I hope DeWitt takes note)?  This lineup is very solid, but losing such a key player along with Werth's departure could be very interesting.

However, my final point is this: The Phil's rotation may be the best 1-4 ever.  Literally, ever.  This offense, even if it should lose Utley, might only need to score 1 run a game every 4 days. When you have a rotation that looks like something out of a video game where you turn on the "force trades" setting, it may not matter if I'm batting in the 3rd spot.

Thanks for reading.  Go Cards.