Part three of the series will be a bit of a stretch, as we'll discuss if this is finally the year the Cubbies break perhaps my favorite streak in all of baseball. The Cubs are a little younger, under new coaching, and added a little kick to the lineup and rotation, all leading to some possible breakout points. But let's start the post with why they won't win: they're the Cubs. They don't win. Even when they do win, they somehow manage to blow it (or blame it on a certain fan even when Alou had no chance at catching that ball). Some things that have happened since the Cubs actually won?
Radio was invented
Haley's Comet came past Earth.....2 times
Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Oklahoma, and New Mexico were added to the Union
Baseball added 14 more teams....not helping the Cubbies' odds
The Cubs had a big regression last year, ending up 12 games under .500 (probably explaining why the Cards had such issues with them). Unfortunately, I'm going to give the Cubs more optimism than most this year. Now, is this year finally "the year"? Could it happen? Probably not. But,here is why they could win the NL Central:
Offense
A whole lot of underachieving was going on last year in Chi-Town. Derrick Lee was very weak before being shipped to Atlanta. Aramis Ramirez just couldn't find his stroke last year. Fukudome continued to prove why his contract is still miserable. So, why am I optimistic about this offense that was middle-of-the-pack last year? A couple of reasons:
1) The veterans: The great thing about baseball is that in the long run, its fairly predictable, especially for players who've been around. Now, I don't expect a bounce back season from every player, but there are a lot of positives for the Cubs I do expect. I expect Soriano to put up his average numbers. I don't expect to see Ramirez bat .241 again (esp if he's healthy, like he appears). Marlon Byrd had a huge resurgence last year, even making the AS Game. I expect a little regression there, but an overall improvement from this group.
2) Carlos Pena: Pena signed a one year deal with the Cubs (which looks good if the Cubbies try to make a move for #5 this offseason). He's been struggling these past few years, but I see a possible return to better numbers for Pena for two reasons. The first is, he's still only 32. A change of scenery could be great for Pena. Secondly, a one year deal could equal one year numbers for the Cubs, meaning he is playing for a new contract next year.
3) The youngsters: I'll admit, I wish the Cards had Starlin Castro. The kid is getting the expressed track taking over the starting job at only 20, and I like his bat and glove. He's got a great ceiling. Soto had a bounce back season from his sophomore slump and Tyler Colvin could move Godzilla to the bench for a 20 million dollar bench bat.
There are a lot of "ifs" here for sure. The Cubs need their rookies to continue their upswing and their veterans to all return to form. But, having said that, I'm optimistic for a good season from this group.
Possible lineup/lines (fangraphs):
Starlin Castro SS .302/5/59
Marlon Byrd Cf .283/14/74
Aramis Ramirez 3b .273/23/84
Carlos Pena 1b .232/31/91
Geovany Soto C .274/18/69
Alfonso Soriano Lf .257/23/68
Tyler Colvin Rf .259/17/65
Blake Dewitt 2b .261/8/50
Pitching
Here is where the Cubbies struggled badly last year. Injuries hurt, and the Big Z was horrible for a while. A lot of young pitchers showed up at the end of the year and it's not really fair to look at last year as a great predictor for this staff. Again, I'm optimistic here. Big Z had a horrible start, but ended the season very strong. Dempster and his annoying glove flip was again very solid and I think Randy Wells and Carlos Silva can be very serviceable back-end guys. Which brings me to the reason I'm optimistic here as well.
Matt Garza. The Cubs gave up quite a bit to get the 27 year old starter from the Rays, but it may be worth it. Garza has been very good, putting up a line of 3.91 era and 15-10 record last year in the AL East (not quite as offensively dangerous division as the NL Central.....). I'm high on him not because I expect him to be a solid starter, but because he lessens the reliance on every other pitcher in that rotation. All of the sudden, Big Z is in the 3 spot and Silva all the way back to the 5th. Garza shifts everyone back and makes this rotation very deep, and I sadly expect good things from them this year. If Silva is serviceable, I think this rotation could end up rivaling the Brewers for the best in the Central. In the bullpen, I think Carlos Marmol is unhittable when he's on and definitely the best closer in the division (he's still got to sign though).
Expected Rotation/Lines (fangraphs):
Ryan Dempster 3.81 13-10
Matt Garza 3.96 12-10
Carlos Zambrano 3.74 12-9
Randy Wells 4.04 10-10
Carlos Silva 4.74 7-8
In-Between the Ears
Again, let me reiterate this point: it's the Cubs. A week into spring training they have issues in the dugout. Marmol is being very difficult to handle by the organization. No one is sure new coach Mike Quade can really handle the likes of Big Z and the self-proclaimed leadoff man Alfonso Soriano. I think this is the main problem with the Cubs this year (and every) if they want to win the Central. They need to lose that losing mentality. They need to grow up. They need to lose some bad contracts. They need a lot.
Final Verdict
It kills me, but the Cubs are my sleeper team in the Central this year. I think the major issue with them is in their heads and being expected to finish 4th in the division might actually help them. They don't have a whole lot of pressure compared to past years. They've got a new coach and young talent. Their rotation (if healthy) is strong. I like their chances of coming up as a sleeper. Sorry folks.
Vegas Odds (bodog.com): 17/4 fourth in the Central
Thanks for reading. Go Cards.
A whole lot of underachieving was going on last year in Chi-Town. Derrick Lee was very weak before being shipped to Atlanta. Aramis Ramirez just couldn't find his stroke last year. Fukudome continued to prove why his contract is still miserable. So, why am I optimistic about this offense that was middle-of-the-pack last year? A couple of reasons:
1) The veterans: The great thing about baseball is that in the long run, its fairly predictable, especially for players who've been around. Now, I don't expect a bounce back season from every player, but there are a lot of positives for the Cubs I do expect. I expect Soriano to put up his average numbers. I don't expect to see Ramirez bat .241 again (esp if he's healthy, like he appears). Marlon Byrd had a huge resurgence last year, even making the AS Game. I expect a little regression there, but an overall improvement from this group.
2) Carlos Pena: Pena signed a one year deal with the Cubs (which looks good if the Cubbies try to make a move for #5 this offseason). He's been struggling these past few years, but I see a possible return to better numbers for Pena for two reasons. The first is, he's still only 32. A change of scenery could be great for Pena. Secondly, a one year deal could equal one year numbers for the Cubs, meaning he is playing for a new contract next year.
3) The youngsters: I'll admit, I wish the Cards had Starlin Castro. The kid is getting the expressed track taking over the starting job at only 20, and I like his bat and glove. He's got a great ceiling. Soto had a bounce back season from his sophomore slump and Tyler Colvin could move Godzilla to the bench for a 20 million dollar bench bat.
There are a lot of "ifs" here for sure. The Cubs need their rookies to continue their upswing and their veterans to all return to form. But, having said that, I'm optimistic for a good season from this group.
Possible lineup/lines (fangraphs):
Starlin Castro SS .302/5/59
Marlon Byrd Cf .283/14/74
Aramis Ramirez 3b .273/23/84
Carlos Pena 1b .232/31/91
Geovany Soto C .274/18/69
Alfonso Soriano Lf .257/23/68
Tyler Colvin Rf .259/17/65
Blake Dewitt 2b .261/8/50
Pitching
Here is where the Cubbies struggled badly last year. Injuries hurt, and the Big Z was horrible for a while. A lot of young pitchers showed up at the end of the year and it's not really fair to look at last year as a great predictor for this staff. Again, I'm optimistic here. Big Z had a horrible start, but ended the season very strong. Dempster and his annoying glove flip was again very solid and I think Randy Wells and Carlos Silva can be very serviceable back-end guys. Which brings me to the reason I'm optimistic here as well.
Matt Garza. The Cubs gave up quite a bit to get the 27 year old starter from the Rays, but it may be worth it. Garza has been very good, putting up a line of 3.91 era and 15-10 record last year in the AL East (not quite as offensively dangerous division as the NL Central.....). I'm high on him not because I expect him to be a solid starter, but because he lessens the reliance on every other pitcher in that rotation. All of the sudden, Big Z is in the 3 spot and Silva all the way back to the 5th. Garza shifts everyone back and makes this rotation very deep, and I sadly expect good things from them this year. If Silva is serviceable, I think this rotation could end up rivaling the Brewers for the best in the Central. In the bullpen, I think Carlos Marmol is unhittable when he's on and definitely the best closer in the division (he's still got to sign though).
Expected Rotation/Lines (fangraphs):
Ryan Dempster 3.81 13-10
Matt Garza 3.96 12-10
Carlos Zambrano 3.74 12-9
Randy Wells 4.04 10-10
Carlos Silva 4.74 7-8
In-Between the Ears
Again, let me reiterate this point: it's the Cubs. A week into spring training they have issues in the dugout. Marmol is being very difficult to handle by the organization. No one is sure new coach Mike Quade can really handle the likes of Big Z and the self-proclaimed leadoff man Alfonso Soriano. I think this is the main problem with the Cubs this year (and every) if they want to win the Central. They need to lose that losing mentality. They need to grow up. They need to lose some bad contracts. They need a lot.
Final Verdict
It kills me, but the Cubs are my sleeper team in the Central this year. I think the major issue with them is in their heads and being expected to finish 4th in the division might actually help them. They don't have a whole lot of pressure compared to past years. They've got a new coach and young talent. Their rotation (if healthy) is strong. I like their chances of coming up as a sleeper. Sorry folks.
Vegas Odds (bodog.com): 17/4 fourth in the Central
Thanks for reading. Go Cards.
I like the cubbies rotation quite a bit. I think their offense can be respectable, but it does lack a focal point. I think the cubs may contend, but doubt they will win it. Too many good players, and not enough great ones.
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