Best Players - Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Chris Young, Kelly Johnson
The Good - The offense will and defense will be at least acceptable for this team. Justin Upton has as much talent as anyone in baseball; maybe 2011 is the year he unleashes it. Stephen Drew is an above average shortstop both offensively and defensively. Even the guys who didn't make the "best players" list will fill out the lineup 1 through 8 okay.
The Bad - Unfortunately, the AZ Diamondbacks will be required to send a starter to the mound 162 times next year. The red's have a problem because they don't have a no. 1 starter; the diamond backs are basically a rotation of 4s and 5s (3s if you're optimistic). This team will give up too many runs this year to compete.
Colorado Rockies
Best Players - Tulo, Ubaldo, Cargo
The Good - The rockies will get good production from most of their lineup. It seems that just to be sure they added a bunch of utility players who can step in and fill the void when someone slips. Tulo was a beast at the end of last year. If he stays healthy all season he will help carry a large portion of the load. Ubaldo broke out last year and showed that he can be the staff ace, and at times one of the best in the NL. Cargo finished 3rd in MVP voting, so there's that.
The Bad - The Rockies best player is a shortstop, and shortstops have a hard time playing 162 games each year. Tulo is too difficult to replace offensively or defensively for an extended period of time. Ubaldo had a break out year last season, but he still struggled with command, especially towards the end of the season. He also stranded a large number of runners, so he has to keep that up if he's going to be wild. Then there is Carlos Gonzalez. He is an above average player, but I think his stats last year were inflated. He is due to regress. All remaining issues are those that every team deals with, health and depth.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Best Players - Kershaw
Good Players - almost everyone else
The Good - The Dodgers have talent pretty evenly distributed throughout the roster. The likely will not give away many outs and they will play respectable defense. I think their biggest strength is the rotation. Kershaw is an ace, and Billingsly acts like one sometimes too. Spots 3 through 5 will provide quality innings as well, especially Kuroda. The pitching of this team will be good enough for them to hang around the top of the division.
The Bad - Unless Eithier or Kemp bounce back in big ways, the offense has no focal point. Is that a problem? Well, it's nice to get slightly above average war from most of your team, but it certainly helps to have a player or two who can carry a team through stretches. I thought that Eithier became that player in 2009, not sure where he went. If Eithier and Kemp maximize their potential, the Dodgers are very dangerous; until then, they're just a minor threat.
San Diego Padres
Best Players - Chase Headley, Mat Latos, Luke Gregerson, Heath Bell
The Good - The Padres have a direction and are not compromising. Adrian Gonzalez was traded, but the return should pay big dividends in the future (Casey Kelly, Jose Igleasis, etc.). In addition though, the guys they ran out last year weren't half bad. The team is young and athletic. Mat Latos is really good, and kind of scary with all those tatoos.
The Bad - This team is not ready to compete for the division. The lineup has too many nice players and not enough star players. The ownership has their eye somewhere beyond 2011, hang in there.
San Francisco Giants
Best Players - Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, Matt Cain
The Good - WS ring day at the ballpark sometime soon! Buster Posey was great last year after being called up. He is the type of player to build a franchise around, the kind of guy the Padres are lacking and the Dodgers hope to rediscover. The starting pitching is phenomenal as well. Lincecum came on strong at the end of last year, Matt Cain is only a step behind, and 3-5 is rounded out well with Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Zito.
The Bad - Lots of things went right last year. Its seems like every scrap heap vet the team picked up put up a 4 WAR season. Good luck repeating that. The team has nice young pieces to build around, but the team may need some serious modifications along the way in 2011 (just like in 2010).
The Prediction
1. Colorado
2. San Francisco
3. Los Angeles
4. Arizona
5. San Diego
Explaination
Initially, I thought this was the easiest division to pick. After breaking down each team though, it appears a bit more bunched than I thought. Colorado, SF, and LA will compete for the top while AZ and SD will fight to avoid the bottom spot. I like the direction that SD is going more than AZ, but time will tell. The top 3 teams are all quite different. But I believe SF will be a few bats short, and LAD will be solid but not spectacular in any way. Ultimately, it looks like solid years from the stars and respectable years from contributors will secure the division title for Colorado.
Just talked about this yesterday actually, picked the Rockies as well.
ReplyDeleteI think Buster Posey is phenomenal and expect him to continue to make huge strides. A rookie showing the composure he did in the playoffs is very rare and the kid has it all. Having said that, I think you're right that those pieces around him just aren't there offensively. Big Panda definitely showed he's not quite there and no one else stands out.
I think the Dodgers contend for first because of their rotation. I think they quietly have one of the best rotations in the NL and could be enough to carry them.
Overall, I think its a battle between East and West to get two teams into the playoffs with a battle between the Dodgers, Giants, Braves, and possibly Marlins.
You have hinted on an issue ive been thinking a lot about, the marlins. Havent decided on their postseason outlook yet but i think they are waaay u derrated and will be a surprise team in 11. Great minds....
ReplyDelete