Why They Will Win It: The Houston Astros

Part 4 of the series is where the odds get a little dicey.  But, for the fun of it, we'll take a look today at why the Houston Astros will compete for the NL Central.

Bud Norris: The Cardinal Killer.  The Astros weren't a good team last year, but really put it together in the second half last year finishing 10 games under .500.  Per the usual of last year, of course, the Cards struggled against them, specifically against the Bud pictured above (3.28 ERA 4-1 against Cards last year).  It was discussed a lot last year the poor job the front office is doing for the Astros when the Oswalt rumors were floating around, so hopes aren't too high in Houston.  Do they have a legitimate shot to make a push?  Or is it going to be a battle with the Pirates for "earliest to look towards next year"?

Offense

The lineup here isn't as horrible looking as the Pirates, but to go with Adam's descriptions from yesterday, they have a lot of decent players but no real good ones.  Despite the 20 million dollars sitting in left field, Hunter Pence is probably the best hitter on this team.  Aside from constantly looking like a giant tool out there in right, Hunter put up very good numbers on a very mediocre team last year and has been unbelievably consistent in his first four years (.289/23/79).  Aside from Hunter, however, this lineup lacks any real focal points.  Every year it seems Carlos Lee proves why he is one of the most overpaid players in baseball (Jayson Werth may surpass him in the near future), just really providing no major threat at all.  The middle infield is made up of veterans Bill Hall and Clint Barmes.  Again, not terrible, but just two mediocre players that would probably be bench guys for a good team.

In terms of rookies, little known Chris Johnson at third base put up a very good campaign last year in only 93 games.  The 26 year old former 4th rounder showed the ability to hit for some good pop with a pretty average power as well.  Expect to see good things from him.  The Astros are hoping to God (as we all were for a while) that Brett Wallace turns into the offensive juggernaut he was projected to be.  He has been incredibly disappointing thus far, but in his defense, has pulled a Kenny Lofton being on 4 teams in the past 2 years.  Maybe some final stability will help him get going.  Overall, this is one of the least threatening lineups in the Central, and the NL as well.

Projected Lineup/Lines (fangraphs):

Michael Bourn         CF      .267/3/56

Chris Johnson           3B      .282/15/60

Hunter Pence           RF       .282/24/85

Carlos Lee               LF       .274/24/90

Brett Wallace           1B       .260/13/51

Bill Hall                    2B       .236/18/53

Clint Barmes            SS       .245/12/50

Humberto Quintero  C         .239/5/24

Pitching


If there is anything I'm optimistic about with this ball club, it's their pitching staff.  This staff is pretty much comprised of the Phillies back end starters (I think they're rotation is doing alright without them).  J.A. Happ was acquired last year in the Oswalt deal.  Brett Myers was picked up and had a tremendous resurgence season last year.  Nelson Figueroa, former bullpen arm, was picked up on waivers and showed he can be a very good starter.  Then there is the very solid Wandy Rodriguez, another one who seems to give the Cards fits with his partner-in-crime, the one and only Bud Norris.

I don't think this rotation is the top in the division by any means, but it is definitely not terrible.  They have a decent 1 in Wandy, and Happ and Meyers have shown they can carry the middle load.  Looking at the ERA projections, people agree.  If Figueroa continues a strong transition, I'm actually quite optimistic in this rotation and confident they can make a legitimate run for possibly 3rd in the division.  The offense will kill them though, so even this is a stretch.  Sorry Houston.

Possible Rotation/Lines (fangraphs):

Wandy Rodriguez     3.66    12-11
J.A. Happ                3.96      7-8
Brett Meyers            3.98     10-11
Nelson Figueroa       4.07     6-8
Bud Norris               4.46      8-10

Final Verdict


Again, this rotation is actually quite respectable.  But with Hunter Pence leading the offense, the Stros should continue to struggle scoring runs.  In order to win the Central, Wallace and Johnson have to somehow turn into Zimmerman and Votto this year.  If that happens, maybe there is a shot.  But Vegas and I would agree, the Astros should be more near the bottom than the top this year.

Vegas Odds (bodog.com): 25/1

I wouldn't put my bankroll on that line.  Thanks for reading.

Go Cards.