The Big Puma.....Or the Big PussyCat?

 

Over the past few months, I've seen hundreds of post about Lance Berkman playing right for the Redbirds this season.  Some seemingly think the big guy is going to bat .500 and hit 75 hrs, while others think he'll need a hip replacement (or some Jack in the Box) after day 1.  Well since Fat Elvis ( he does have maybe the best nicknames in baseball) went yard in his first at bat of the spring today, I've decided to look at just what would be acceptable for Berkman this year?  At what point do we go from riding Mo, to praising him?

Looking at his career numbers against the Cards, its a good thing he's on our team if he decides to turn it around.  In 260 abs against the Birds, he hit .308 with 22 hrs and 54 rbis.  Not too shabby.  But the Big Puma is getting up in age (35) and has been battling health issues these past couple seasons, which makes his appearance in right and his initial signing a bit strange.  Moreover, Berkman's been on a bit of a downtrend.  Thanks to fangraphs, you can see his avg, slugging, and obp have been headed south these past three years.  Graphs. Ummmm....yea.

But there are two things I love about Berkman.  1) He still takes a lot of walks.  I love a hitter with a great eye and Billy Beane would say the same (I love Moneyball).  It's nice to see the Puma's not getting wild with his swings.  2) He hasssss been hurt.  It's a stretch I know, but I just have that gut feeling he's a different player regardless of age if he's healthy (feel free to bash that).  But back to my original point: So he is healthy and he hits in-front of Pujols, behind him, or I bet in the 9 hole once or twice (thanks TLR).  What numbers does he need to put up to make up for questionable defense and $8 million?  Here is my opinion: 

Here are the general (average) fangraphs, Marcel, Bill James projections for Berkman:

        BA .270      HR 20     RBI 76    SLG .464         WAR 2.1

Here are those same projections, for a different player:

       BA .267       HR  20    RBI  81    SLG .445        WAR 1.8

Those would be Ryan Ludwick's projections.  Now I know these are projections (but they're usually pretty solid and I do trust sabermetrics.....), but if Fat Elvis and Luddy end up here, I'm happy with the numbers for a couple of reasons.

1) Berkman isn't the muscle of this team.  Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus, all can hit the ball. Far.  The Friars will be relying heavily on Luddy's bat for pop with A-Gonz gone and Jorge Cantu as the next power bat. If Berkman can put up better numbers or comparable ones, I'm pleased. Advantage Cards.

2) Defense:  This one goes to Luddy.  I absolutely love how he plays the field.  Berk is a liability no doubt and time will tell how big of one.  Advantage Luddy

3) Contracts: Berkman will be getting 8 million, Ludwick 6.7 million.  Ludwick is cheaper now, but with the ridiculous outfield contracts this offseason, I'm wondering how much Luddy would cost for an extension?  Advantage: Wash.

4) What we got in return- Jake Westbrook is looking incredibly important this year.  He'll have to be.  Berkman (and I don't know if this reallllly has any value) brings that clubhouse presence the organization has been talking about for the past 2 years.  That sort of veteran, Will Clark Larry Walker swagger.  Advantage Cards.

I think when it is all said and done, if Berkman can hit around his projections and not kill us in left field, he's a great pickup.  But in my honest opinion, with Ludwick really as the only other full time option in right this offseason (since we can't pay Jayson Werth more than Pujols), Berkman outhits Ludwick, pickup is great.  If not, back to the old platoon.  

Thanks for reading. 

Go Cards.