Why They Will Win It: The Milwaukee Brewers

In this five part series, the Brain Trust will be looking at each team in the Central and explaining why they could end up on top come September (yes, even the Pirates will be looked at).  So today, we're going to start with the "hot pick" of the year and the newly revamped pitching staff of the Milwaukee Brewers.  And if you're unaware, the answer is yes, that is Ryan Braun.  And yes, he is sporting his own clothing line.  And finally yes, he appears to be a Ed Hardy/Atticus T-shirt wearing kind of doucher.
Wayne Campbell: So, do you come to Milwaukee often? 
Alice Cooper: Well, I'm a regular visitor here, but Milwaukee has certainly had its share of visitors. The French missionaries and explorers began visiting here in the late 16th century. 
Pete: Hey, isn't "Milwaukee" an Indian name? 
Alice Cooper: Yes, Pete, it is. In fact , it's pronounced "mill-e-wah-que" which is Algonquin for "the good land." 
Wayne Campbell: I was not aware of that. 

Yes, Milwaukee is a land of vast tradition and history.  But not particularly when it comes to the Brew Crew, who may be most memorable for the Sausage Races during the seventh inning stretch in terms of their spot in baseball history. World Series: 0. NL Pennants: 0.  NL Central Titles: Astonishingly, also 0.  So why are so many people this year all over the Crew to win the Central.  A couple of reasons:

Hitting:


There is no denying that the Brewers can hit the ball.   4th in runs and batting average, and second in homers in the NL in 2010, this lineup has always been able to put up some numbers.  A middle of the lineup of Braun and Fielder is quite the duo, and with the years Corey Hart and Casey McGehee put up last year, this lineup could again be scary good offensively.  If these two can continue where they left off last year and the Crew can get respectable numbers from rookies Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez, this lineup could be even more potent than last year.
Expected Lineup and Lines (fangraphs):

1. Rickie Weeks 2b                .261/22/69

2. Corey Hart Rf                     .271/22/82

3. Ryan Braun  Lf                   .306/30/108

4. Prince Fielder 1b                .279/37/113

5. Casey McGehee 3b            .282/20/72

6. Jonathan Lucroy C             .262/8/40

7. Yuneisky Betancourt SS     .255/11/59

8. Carlos Gomez Cf                .253/6/44

Pitching:


There is no way around it, the Brewers staff has been crap.  I'm not sure why GM Doug Melvin thought Randy Wolf could be an ace in 2010, but he was proved utterly wrong.  With a line of 4.17 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, Wolf was, well, his standard self.  A solid middle of the rotation/back rotation guy who can give you 200+ innings.  Behind only Pittsburgh and Arizona last year with a team ERA of 4.58 and an BAA of .267, this rotation struggled.  But, Doug Melvin seems to have put all the chips in this year, going out and getting Zach Greinke and Sean Marcum.  All of the sudden, the Crew has it's ace, and Wolf gets bumped all the way back to the 4 spot behind Gallardo and Marcum.  I'm not 100% sold that Greinke is the legit ace we saw two years back, but getting out of Kansas City could catapult his motivation right back to those numbers.  By addressing their enormous need this summer, Melvin has made the Crew a much more dangerous threat.

The Crews bullpen is nothing to shake a stick at when looking at the new starting rotation, but it is okay I suppose.  It has definitely become the question mark on this team now, with Manny Parra jumping back there and no really explosive closer to seal the deal in games.  The Crew will win the Central if the starters can go deep, and the pen can manage to not blow leads.  If they get into the pen early, I see some possible issues.
Expected Rotation/Lines (fangraphs):
1. Zach Greinke        14-10   3.33
2. Yovani Gallardo    13-8     3.51
3. Shaun Marcum      11-9     3.69
4. Randy Wolf           12-11   4.06
5. Chris Narveson     9-9       4.30

Fielding

Fielding is a tough one to judge, and also the verdict is still out about its importance in making a World Series run.  The Brewers were middle of the pack last year in the NL, with Braun becoming a much more respectable defender than his earlier years projected.  But with the addition of the "man with stone hands" in Yuniesky Betancourt, their defense did not get any better.  However, with this being really the only strong weakness along with possible bullpen effectiveness, you can see why they're the hot pick this year.


Final Verdict


Our poll earlier this week had a pretty strong pull towards the Cards running up to the Crew in the central this year.  I have full confidence they will be pounding the ball as they usually do, especially with the large and in charge Prince looking for some money this offseason.  If Greinke re-emerges as the absolute ace he was during his Cy Young run, and Marcum continues to put up very respectable numbers, this Brewers team could definitely not only win the central, but ride their front 3 in the playoffs.

Vegas Odds of Winning Central (bodog.com): 2-1 (that'll be your favorite folks)

Thanks for reading. Go Cards.