Why They Will Win It: The Cincinnati Reds

It's been a long time since we could say the Red Legs are the reigning NL Central Champs (1996 to be exact, when the number one song was the Macarena and the number one movie is the classic Independence Day).  Yes, the Reds hadn't seen the playoffs in a while and showed the weakness of the NL Central last year by getting handled in the first round by the Phillies.  But it's funny how a season can change things.  Suddenly, there is beef with the once lowly Reds.  All of a sudden, a new little feud has begun here in St. Louis (which I won't drop until Jason Larue is symptom free and ends his retirement).  So with no real major additions this offseason, do the Reds stand to repeat?  Is this young core the real deal?  Or are they just a bunch of "little bitches"?

Office and Coaching

I think we're all pretty familiar with Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker, and I think they will play a major role this season for the Reds.  Let me be clear with this point: I love Walt Jocketty and believe he is a great baseball mind.  As I stated yesterday, I can't think of one trade the man made in Stl that I dislike (perhaps the Mulder trade, but I'll take a World Series for that).  With Walt at the helm, I'm much more confident in this team's ability to succeed and possibly add a player mid-season if they're in it to win it.  That being said, I am a firm believer that Dusty Baker is not a good coach.  Terrible, in my opinion.  He's ruined arms, he goes against all sabermetric stats, and plus, he coached the Cubbies.  Enough said.  I really do believe with such a young core of players that coaching relies almost more heavily on guys like Rolen and Arroyo then Dusty.

Offense

The Reds were the most potent offense in the NL last year and The Great American Ballpark could do little to keep the ball in the park.  With a phenomenal season by MVP Joey Votto and a great season by Jay Bruce, the young boys were bringing it.  There is no doubt in my mind that barring any injuries, these two will bring it again.  But, there is a little doubt in my mind about this offense.  Is soon to be 36 year old Scott Rolen going to hit .285/20/83 again?  Ramon Hernandez hit .297 last year!? Edgar Renteria is also not getting any younger (and def regressing) just behind Rolen in age, and can Paul Janish really fill that platoon at ss?  While Jonny Gomes didn't light the world on fire, can you really expect him to reproduce his power numbers?  Lots of questions, but not enough I think to drastically drop the Reds offense down.  With Votto, Bruce, and Phillips looking solid, I think this offense won't repeat last year, but will still be very respectable.

*Also, a very interesting note here.  These projections are an average of Bill James, Marcel, and Fan projections from Fangraphs.  While the fan projections tend to be a little more optimistic at times, there are some extreme skews in projections for quite a few Reds players.  Just food for thought.

Possible Lineup/Lines (fangraphs):

Brandon Phillips 2b     .268/19/74

Drew Stubbs Cf          .262/20/75

Joey Votto 1b             .314/31/106

Scott Rolen 3b            .277/15/72

Jay Bruce Rf                .276/28/83

Jonny Gomes Lf           .259/17/62

Edgar Renteria SS        .264/6/41

Ramon Hernandez C    .265/9/39

Pitching

Here is where the Reds get very interesting.  They have a ton of young, cheap, pitching depth currently on the roster.  

Reasons I like the Reds staff:  all of the above reasons.  

Reasons I don't: Unless Volquez takes a huge (huge) turn this year, there is no dominant ace on this team.  This team is going to give you a quality start (more often than not) every game, but the real question comes down to when the Reds face a Halladay or a Waino, who can they send out to compete?  The playoffs last year and Reds record against the Cards (6-12) showed that there is a lacking piece there.  The reason I touched on Big Walt earlier is, if he sees fit, could he package some of these middle rotation youngsters and some pieces for a quality number one guy?  

If you're thinking Aroldis Chapman is that guy, definitely not yet.  We will see what he does this year and how he adjusts to more of a workload.  There is no doubt the kid has the physical skill-set, but he's got some huge bullpen shoes to fill this year with the loss of the old Arthur Rhodes who was phenomenal last year.  The ceiling is very high for this kid, but so could be his potential responsibilities.  An exciting story to watch.

Possible Rotation/Lines:

Edinson Volquez     9-7     3.95

Bronson Arroyo     13-11  4.08

Johnny Cueto         11-9    4.01

*battle for 4/5 spots

Homer Baily           9-8     4.28

Mike Leake           9-6      4.16

Travis Wood          9-7      3.60

Final Verdict

In the Brain Trust's opinion, the reigning Reds might not be able to repeat this season.  An aging core of players may not be able to repeat or compliment the strong young core the Reds have built up offensively.  Pitching won't win the Reds the Central, but it definitely won't be there downfall in terms of lack of quality starts.  Overall, the Reds repeat in the Central again if their older players continue to match last year's numbers, as I expect their young core to still be great, and if their pitching staff remains stable and possibly adds a big name to the rotation.  However, in the end, the Reds won a very weak division last year and we're unsure if they will be able to surpass the improved Brewers. 

Odds of winning (bodog.com): 5/2 

Thanks for reading, check back tomorrow for the next part in our series: the Cubs.  

Go Cards.