Saint Louis Cardinals 2011 Rotation, Bullpen, and Pitching Depth

First post, so I won't go too in depth. I want to briefly touch on many aspects of 2011 Cardinals pitching. Hopefully this brainstorm will bring to light specific topics worthy of further discussion, investigation, posts, and comments. Let's start with the obvious, the four guys whom we know will be in the starting rotation -- Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook, and Lohse.


Chris Carpenter is an excellent presence at the top of the rotation. He has the endurance and efficiency to pitch deep into games regularly, and the focus and poise to pitch his way out of tough situations. He was superb in 2009 (2nd place Cy Young finish) and very good in 2010. I am glad to have him leading the pitching staff. All indications are that he works hard at his craft, and is perhaps the fiercest competitor in the clubhouse (sorry Brendan, you will be missed, but I still can't get mad at Chris because he is everything I love in a baseball player). It is worth noting though that Carpenter will be playing at the age of 36 for the majority of the 2011 season. I count on him to be a legit number 1 this year, but don't know how much longer it is fair for us to expect that of him. Very interested at the Cardinals plan to approach his 2012 option, which cannot be examined in a vacuum (Waino and Albert contracts most notably).

Jaime Garcia, I like you a lot. I think you will be at least a solid number 2 starting pitcher for a long time. Honestly, I think you will be even better than that some years. It is your 2011 season that I am most looking forward to watch from a pitching standpoint. Viva El Birdos featured a post about Jaime today, and its author seems as confident in his future as I do, glad to see.

Jake Westbrook will be a year further removed from Tommy John surgery. From what I understand it is not until your second full season back that you can fully access your pitching potential (command, velocity, "stuff"). I have lots of confidence that Jake Westbrook will be at worst a solid middle of the rotation starter next year and the year after. I will not be surprised if Duncan coaxes a little bit extra out of Westbrook that no one knew he had and they start writing articles about Jake Westbrook at fangraphs, trying to determine if his success is luck or to be expected.

Kyle Lohse, please be good. This is your third year of your $40m+ deal. So far you have not been so good, and there have been excuses. I still believe you can salvage the last couple years of your deal for us. Maybe if you're not good, we could trade one of your watches at the deadline one of the Rays excess pitchers (they have lots and could pawn the watch to help pay for a new stadium).

Now the fifth spot. Open up a competition at spring, but it seems pretty likely that it will come down to either Lance Lynn or Kyle McClellan. This is tough for me. I have wanted Kmac to start for a while. We were told when he made the bullpen 3 years ago that he could really be a starter, and I haven't let go of that idea. I want to at least see what Kmac the starter provides. On the other hand, he was one of our most reliable bullpen guys last year and his loss would mean a rookie gets more of those innings we relied on him for. Lance Lynn was a high draft pick in 08 and has progressed quickly. I think he may be ready for the show. Does he need two years in Memphis to further polish his craft, or will that just be wasting his time? I do not know. Ultimately, I think perhaps the best plan of attack (providing Lynn and Kmac both look like reliable options at the end of the spring) would be to give the 5th spot to Kmac, and the 6th spot to Lynn. There are always injuries, and I am sure there will be innings to fill.

One of my reasons for choosing Kmac for the 5th spot is because I think Lunhow and Mo have a good track record of developing bullpen arms. There seem to be multiple good choices to pick from for the remaining bullpen spots. First though, the incumbents: Franklin (closer), Motte, Boggs, Miller (lefty specialist). These are the guys we know will be out there, and I am comfortable with them even though Franklin sometimes looks like he's throwing bp he gets hit so hard -- surprisingly they have been finding gloves, I hope the luck doesn't run out. For the remaining spots we have lots of choices, and I will probably forget some obvious ones, but I have been typing for a while now and I haven't built up blogging stamina yet. Fernando Salas was up for a bit last year (30 IP, 8.51 K/9, 4.40 BB/9). He needs to walk fewer, but he has good strikeout stuff it seems, which is great for a bullpen guy. I think he's as good as a lock. A guy I'd love to see here is Eduardo Sanchez. Most rankings have him as one of our best prospects. He is young, 21, strikes out a ton (~10 K/9) and is said to have good control. He may need a little more minor league seasoning, but I think he will be an important part of our bullpen's future.

I need to round out my look at the bullpen, but that's enough for tonight. I think the Cardinals pitching will be a strength again this year. Sure, we lost one of the best pitchers in baseball, but we aren't replacing him with Todd Wellemeyer or Mike Maroth. I like our rotation 1 through 6 (Carp, Garcia, Westbrook, Lohse, Kmac, Lynn). I am really looking forward to throwing out a starter everyday that I believe can keep us in games.


Side note which I have not verified but believe to be true...Waino had surgery today (I know that part is true). He joins a long list of current Cardinals to have had the surgery: McClellan, Carp, Westbrook, and Garcia. Hopefully his surgery is as successful. When he rejoins the rotation Lohse will be the only guy who will not have had it (unless Kmac steals his spot).

Lots of words for a quick post. I hope to provide a little bit more analysis in the future, but we're just getting started. I am thinking of writing about the future of the Saint Louis Cardinals rotation. Lots of intrigue there, I believe.