Organizational Health - OF

Starting a new series taking a position by position look at the St. Louis Cardinals and where they stand presently and what the future looks like from where we are today. I will start with the entire outfield. Initially, I planned to do this in two or three posts (breaking out center, and possibly all three), but we are set in stone in LF, and close to it in CF, so we will look at the entire outfield in one pass.

Here we go...

The current outfield (when healthy) will play Colby (1986, 2014 FA) in center and Holliday (1980, 2016 FA w/ 2017 option $17M/$1M) in left almost everyday. Lance Berkman (1976, 2011 FA) will spend as much time in right field as his play and health warrant. The major league depth at the position includes Jon Jay (1985, 2015 FA?) and Allen Craig (1984, 2016 FA?). If and when Tony LaRussa decides to get cute with the match-ups we may find Tyler Greene (1983) and or Skip Schumaker (1980) standing on grass rather than dirt as well.

2011 Outlook

This year our outfield appears to be a strength of the club. Colby Rasmus is improving as a baseball player has a superstar caliber ceiling. As soon as this year he could be close to an MVP caliber producer (it is more likely he will improve but be below that ceiling, but none the less, it's there). His defensive value in center field is debatable, but it is at least adequate (at a premium position) with some saying it is actually above average. Matt Holliday is one of the best left fielders in the game, a truly elite player. His defense gets criticized, but should be taken in the appropriate context -- left field. As a left fielder though, his glove is actually above average (8.7 UZR/150 in 2010). A quick look at fangraphs shows us that Matt Holliday has been worth in excess of $25 million dollars every year since 2007!

Lance Berkman is a player who's projected 2011 production has a huge variance. The worst case scenario looks like this: his bat does not rebound to pre-2010 form, the little offensive value he does provide is given back in the field, and he only can play a limited number of games due to increased wear on a 35 year old body used to standing next to 1B. The best case scenario looks like this: being a year removed from surgery and finally healthy Lance Berkman puts up numbers nearly indistinguishable from Matt Holliday, the glove is passable because after all how often does the ball get hit to right field?, and he gets ~500 PA's because his body holds up due to Tony's carefully planned off days courteous of Jon Jay or Allen Craig.

The depth this year looks to be excellent -- some might say excellent is too strong in this situation but I am very high on Allen Craig. Jon Jay can capably play all 3 outfield positions, his on-base ability will be decent, but his power will be deficient for the position(s). Allen Craig is athletic enough to make routine plays in LF and RF, although strong accurate throws will not be associated with him. But, Allen Craig will provide a line drive bat capable of hitting for a high average with doubles and perhaps a respectable homerun total (relative to the number of AB's of course).

2012-2013 Outlook

Unless there is an injury or trade of Colby or Matt (unlikely, highly) these two will be fixtures through 2012 and 2013 for the organization. Matt Holliday's production may start to decline slightly through his early thirties, but Colby's progression should out weigh that by a comfortable margin.

Right field is a spot that looks like we would be best served by filling internally given internal options and salary commitments elsewhere (SP's, LF, 1B?, C?). The most obvious options includes one of, or a combination of, Craig and Jay. Their performance this year will go a long way in making that decision (of course one or both of these guys may be trade bait too).

In the high minors (AA and AAA) we have a few names who will likely find their way onto the roster as depth, but with a strong performance could become a starter. Here are the candidates...

Adron Chambers (AAA). Bat L Throw L. Drafted 38th round 2007, born 1986. Chambers' stock has risen a lot in the past year. He can play center field, has speed, and on-base abilities though not much power.

Daryl Jones (AAA). Bat L Throw L. Drafted 3rd round 2005, born '87. Jones was taken as a raw athlete with tools to be great. A few years ago it was looking like he was going to put it together when he OPS'd ~900. But, 2009 and 2010 disappointed, and he is looking like a 4th/5th starter at best.

James Rappaport (AAA). Bat L Throw L. Drafted in the 35th round of 2006, born '85. Another guy who just seems to be around. By the time he starts to put it together, someone will pass him.

Shane Robinson (AAA). It won't happen so I won't look it up. Think Skip with less talent.

Tyler Henley (AA). Bat L Throw L (notice a trend?). Drafted 8th round in 2007, born 1985. Henley has made some noise, with a decent bat and decent power, but there are guys ahead of him.

Oscar Taveras (low A). This guy was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2008. His was born in 1992! Although he is a while away, he's an OF worth watching, think Colby Rasmus type.


2014+ Outlook

By this time Colby will be just a season from free agency -- close enough that he is a trade candidate if an extension is not in his future. We know Matt will still be around, but entering his age 34 season. It appears Taveras is the only guy with a high enough ceiling to get excited about in our current system.

Summary

I don't want to say we need more depth, we have and could still have Jay, Craig, Chambers, Jones, and Henley types. What we need are more high ceiling guys in the system for the outfield position (like Taveras). The good news is, 2 of 3 positions will be filled by the highest caliber players for quite some time now. I am very much in favor of exploring an extension to buy out a year or two of free agency with Colby Rasmus as soon as tomorrow. But, his time with the Cardinals hasn't been all rainbows and butterflies thus far so that dynamic (perhaps involving his micromanaging father) may be difficult to negotiate. Overall, the outfield is probably fighting with starting pitching as our best outlook moving forward.