Frankie Says Relax

Ryan Franklin is not your traditional closer, and for that, he is the number one target for St. Louis fans.  The general opinion it seems of many, is that without a closer who throws 98 and strikesout every batter, the Cardinals just won't be in the best position to win.  Sorry folks, but that's just not the case.  Frankie may give up quite a few hits, may pitch to contact, but compared to the rest of the league, he is more than serviceable.

First of all, the role of closer, in my opinion, should not even really exist.  In theory, your closer is the best pitcher in your bullpen. Therefore, he should be utilized in the most high leverage situations.  Now while many of these may come at the end of the game, there are a number that don't.  Bases loaded in the 7th when you're up 2 could have a much much higher impact on the outcome of the game.  Throw your best out there for that situation, not the 9th.    Furthermore, regardless of who pitches, the odds of a team winning in the ninth don't vary much at all.  You don't need a closer, you need a clutch, shutdown guy.  You need a guy you bring into any situation and takes care of business.  So maybe you think Motte or Boggs is that guy. Fine.  Don't jump on Franklin for being pigeon-holed into the closer role.

Now, thanks to our friends at Fangraphs, we have some amazing numbers and stats at our fingertips.  So, I decided to compare Franklin to the closers of last year and look at some interesting numbers (note: Joe Nathan was included using '09 stats because he is one of the "dominant closers" and missed '10).  Here are the criteria being looked at:

GMLI-Average Leverage Index When Entering a Game (basically, is it a higher risk situation)

PLI-Average Leverage Index

+WPA-Win Advancement

Clutch-How much better a player does in high leverage situations

SD-Shutdowns

MD- Meltdowns

Looking at the results, Franklin comes in to much less intense situations than the average closer in the league.  This number is actually quite surprising, considering almost every Card's game last year seemed to be a very close win.  In terms of "Clutch-ness", a bit of an odd measurement I know, but Frankie was right on league average.  So when he did enter those more high risk situations, he performed at average with the rest of the league's closers.  Most importantly, he didn't have major meltdowns. 

Franklin does not make people miss.  He's not that kind of pitcher.  But, in terms of other closers, he was right at the average for shut-down moments.  More importantly, again, he was tied with Joe Nathan and Rafael Soriano for fewest meltdowns in the league.  Even if there is a blown save, which Frankie also rarely has (although the season began poorly for him), he keeps it controlled and in the game.  Finally, while pitchers add very little to win probability advancement, Frankie was well above the average here.  Basically, the point being, and the numbers showing, that for the salary Franklin is an above average closer that minimizes losses and increases our chances of winning.  

In conclusion, there is little doubt Mariano Rivera is perhaps the greatest closer of all time.  He comes into the most frequently high risk situations, and leads the league in shutdowns.  He's a huge asset to have.  But those don't come around often.  You also have your one-hit wonders.  Those enigmas.  For example, Derrick Turnbow's 39 save season.  Closer is a strange position, and one that gets overemphasized I think in terms of loss responsibility.  He's the freshest memory in your mind, and Frankie catches a lot of heat.  But relax.  He's better than most.  Frankie would appreciate it if you did.

Thanks for reading.  Go Cards!