I think it is tougher to come up with writing ideas the first couple weeks of the season than any other time of the calendar year. Reason being, it's past time for the fun spring training hypotheticals, but it is too early to analyze the season based on real games because the games are too few to call anything a trend. So, here are the things I am thinking about, but not ready to delve too deep into until the season develops.
Frankie Says Relax - Rebuttle
Matt posted Sunday evening about Ryan Franklin being a serviceable closer. I badly want to disagree and say that he is not. But, I like numbers and dislike 'gut' feelings. Matt backed up his claim of Franklin as a serviceable closer with a statistical comparison to other major league closers. Fair enough. So, the only thing I will say is this, Franklin is a pitch to contact pitcher. I do not like having a contact pitcher throwing in the ninth inning with the game on the line. A contact pitcher is prone to giving up a string of hits which result in runs. There is less time for the offense to get those runs back when they are scored in the 9th. I like my closers with good strike out stuff. Why pitch efficiently when you only have to throw ~70 innings per year. Go up there and try to strike guys out. Don't let them put the ball in play. But, like I said, you cannot argue with results; Franklin's results are 'serviceable' as they say in the biz.
Jon Jay and Allen Craig
First, the articles which sparked these thoughts. Fangraphs looked at the impact of replacing Matt Holliday with a left field platoon of Jay/Craig (4 1st names for 1 lineup spot?) here. Next, Ken Rosenthal reveals Allen Craig is a coveted name by other teams in this video.
One of the things that make me happy about our chances to compete this year are guys like Jay and Craig. We no longer are throwing Randy Winns and Todd Wellemeyers at the wall hoping they stick. Not only are these Jays/Craigs/Lynns/etc. better than the aforementioned vets, but they are cost controlled for 6 years and have the potential to develop and with luck, flash some upside. So, I do not want to trade one of these guys for a one year marginal upgrade in the bulpen (which may or may not be better than our minor league arms...cough...Eduardo Sanchez). I am not saying that Craig/Jay types are untouchable, I am just saying don't give them away. These guys have value in their ability to be atleast slightly better than league average, and the fact that they can do it for 6 years. They don't grow on trees, so I hope they don't become a Luke Gregerson or Chris Perez -- traded away for a short term marginal upgrade.
Albert Pujols and runners on base
Like I said earlier, too early to call anything a trend. So, I will not extrapolate over the course of the season Albert's 4 ground into double plays in three games. But, I will say this. We have Tony's 'protection' in the 4 spot (kind of, please hurry back Matty). So, why worry about leaving first base open with Albert on base. Let's steal some bases in front of Albert. And, if they do walk Albert when given the open base, who cares, Matt Holliday is up and there is a higher probability of scoring with two runners on than with 1. Also, Albert has had a GB% in the high 30s low 40s over his career. Matt Holliday is slightly better in the mid to high 30s. No ground ball, no double play. Jay and Raz could be running in that spot. Let's learn to steal some bases boys.
Athlete announcers (or color commentators)
Rick Horton does not provide meaningful contributions to the analysis of sports. He didn't even know the name of our starting third baseman today (Descalso). Come on. Do your homework. And why do networks think we want to hear all of these former players talk so much (Will Clark, Rick Horton, Chris Duncan (101.1), Cal Eldred). I'd much rather have a competent non-athlete than a marginal former ball player. I'm sure there are lots of graduates from programs like Mizzou's sports journalism who could do a better job than these former athletes. Let's get some, please. For all we know the next Joe Buck is working in a business other than sports journalism because once he or she graduated, all the sports broadcasting jobs were taken by athletes with inferior mic skills.
Posting Schedule
Looks like I will be providing a regular post on Sundays and Fridays. Matt will be doing the same on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Tony hasn't set a regular day, but he will be around too.
I think my main argue really is, you shouldn't utilize only one guy in a "closer" role. I agree, I'd prefer someone who minimizes base runners, but I feel like if the bases were loaded with 2 outs in the 7th, we're throwing Motte/Boggs and not Frankie. Reason being, you throw your best pitcher in high leverage situations. Frankie isn't our best bullpen pitcher, but like I said, he is serviceable.
ReplyDeleteYes. The best bulpen pitcher should always be used in the highest leverage situation, even if it is before the 9th inning. I saw someone (Law?) describe it perfectly as such...the closer stat was made-up by with some fairly arbitrary guidelines and managers all around baseball have modified the bullpen roles to fit the stat. That is not that way things should be done. I cannot believe how backwards some areas of the game are considering how forward thinking many fans (and front offices) seem to be.
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